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Conceptual Model of State Collapse
Summary A minimalist conceptual model of the state is presented in which the fundamental basis of state existence and continuity is the flux of produced resources between producers and the needed state apparatus, while contending with powerful domestic non-state actors and foreign challenges. External conditions that reduce per capita production threaten state continuity, and the […]
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Compound Interest Is Devouring the Federal Budget
Albert Einstein is often quoted as saying that compound interest is “the most powerful force in the universe.” The quote is probably apocryphal, but it reflects a mathematical truth. Interest on earlier interest grows exponentially, outrunning the linear growth of revenue and eventually consuming everything. That is where the United States now stands. The government […]
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Stagflation: Stagnation, Inflation, and Beyond
Since my prediction in April of 2007 of an impending economic crash, I’ve vowed not to risk my unblemished record with any further predictions. But a simple thing that I learned from the run-up to that catastrophe was when the “little people” — the “every man and every-woman” — found their way into stock market […]
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Fatal Decline of the Imperial Power
A previous article, “Challenging China,” described the mixed and managed economy that enables China (PRC) to overcome the economic pressures posed by an overly contentious America. More to it. China’s mixed and managed economy is designed to match its stage of development and is well managed. The U.S. non-managed economy has no design and does […]
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President Trump’s Proposal to Eliminate Income Taxes: Can It Be Done?
In February, President Trump said that tariffs would generate so much income that Americans would no longer need to pay income taxes. The latest plan, according to U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, is to abolish income taxes for people who earn less than $150,000 yearly. That move would affect roughly 75% of workers, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. On its […]
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The Return of Stagflation
When investing, as in horror films, the most terrifying villains are the ones we thought were dead. Stagflation that economic nightmare of the 1970s characterized by stagnant growth paired with persistent inflation was supposedly dead and buried decades ago. But like any good movie monster, it’s clawing its way back to the surface, and Americans […]
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Donald Trump and Depression Economics
Somewhere in the universe is a man known as Donald Trump. He has residences in New York, Palm Beach, Florida, and a white columned house at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington, D.C. From these well-furnished bungalows, where supplicants meet to greet, monarch butterfly Trump governs his territory ─ planet earth. When the monarch desires a change […]
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“Quantitative Easing with Chinese Characteristics”
China went from one of the poorest countries in the world to global economic powerhouse in a mere four decades. Currently featured in the news is DeepSeek, the free, open source A.I. built by innovative Chinese entrepreneurs which just pricked the massive U.S. A.I. bubble. Even more impressive, however, is the infrastructure China has built, including 26,000 […]
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Our Fragile Infrastructure: Lessons From Hurricane Helene
Asheville, North Carolina, is known for its historic architecture, vibrant arts scene and as a gateway to the Blue Ridge Mountains. It was a favorite escape for “climate migrants” moving from California, Arizona, and other climate-challenged vicinities, until a “500 year flood” ravaged the city this fall. Hurricane Helene was a wakeup call not just for stricken […]
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Economic Conditions and Hollow Victories
Among the very few things to look forward to on Labor Day is Jack Rasmus’s annual report on the state of US labor. Rasmus, an accomplished political-economist, riffs on the famous Frederick Engels book with Labor Day 2024: The Condition of the American Working Class Today. It may come as a surprise to some, but […]
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